It is over 55 years old and has been used for decades by the mainstream science crowd to scoff at the notion of life evolving outside our planet.
By arbitrary, I mean that some of the factors in the equation, such as L for the longevity of any given ET race, is made up.
Scientists have no way to tell how long a civilization will last because we've "never encountered one before," so they made an educated guess about what that number might be, hence arbitrary.
|Image Source. The Drake Equation.|
In other words, the Drake Equation is a type of scientifically derived myth—one of many on our world—that claims humanity is the only civilization the entire universe has ever produced. Considering the sheer size of the cosmos, of billions of galaxies, each with billions of stars, it seems a bit short-sighted to say we are the only civilization to emerge.
But with the discovery of an increasing number of exoplanets over the past 10 years, scientists are now realizing that the equation needs to change.
Adam Frank is a professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester who helped co-author a paper proposing changes to the Drake Equation, which incorporate Kepler's exoplanet observations. The team revised the framework of several factors so that instead of asking how likely is it that ET civilizations exist, it instead asks how likely is it that our civilization is the only one to have existed.
Once the data was entered into the new version of the equation, it provided a result that said it was far more likely that other civilizations have existed in the past, but there was a twist.
In order to make the equation work, certain assumptions needed to be made, one of them was that the longevity of a civilization is dependent on how long it has been around, its population size and the total amount of CO2 it produces. The idea being, a civilization will burn itself out after all the resources have been consumed and the environment has been destroyed. And the presumption to support this assumption is that civilizations cannot find balance with the environment, and therefore will always eventually go extinct.
But is this really the only outcome of a civilization?
While the new equation did suggest many ET civilizations have come before ours, they are all extinct now. There could be ancient ruins from these civilizations left throughout the cosmos, but if the revised equation is correct, we'll never find one to talk to.
So on the one hand, the scientific community seems to be suggesting that the discovery of ET life is an eventuality, but what we find will be ancient long extinct civilizations.
I think this revision is probably a preamble for disclosure because the Drake Equation has been held up in the past as proof no life exists outside the Earth. Changing this sanctified equation is indicative of a paradigm shift within the scientific community, but this may just be part of a limited or partial disclosure effort.
For those well versed in ufology and the disclosure initiatives from the past, the reality of extraterrestrial spacecraft and contacts with governments on Earth is undeniable. Within the officially disclosed body of documents from government sources, we know without a shadow of a doubt that extraterrestrial races do in fact exist.
Related The Laurance Rockefeller UFO Disclosure Initiative | Official Government Documents (Clinton OSTP) Confirm Knowledge of UFOs and ETs
If even one UFO is non-terrestrial in origin, then the whole issue of ET civilizations existing concurrently with our own is validated, and the revised Drake equation along with the assertion that all ET life has long since gone extinct is disproven.
Corey Goode is a secret space program insider and whistleblower who claims to have worked directly with clandestine agencies who not only know about the existence of extraterrestrial races but work directly with them. According to Goode, humans have colonized the solar system and beyond, and are actively trading with over 900 different ET races.
Related Cosmic Disclosure Episode 7: Special Report: Mars Colony Inspection - Summary and Analysis | Corey Goode and David Wilcock
In recent years, secret space programs, which range in scope and involvement, have formed an alliance known as the SSP Alliance. They have defected away from certain criminal syndicates from whom they originated, and intend on releasing hidden technology and the true history of our past to humanity.
But in an update provided by Goode recently, he said that certain lower level secret space programs have broken away from the SSP Alliance, and intend—with their Earth-based allies—to push a partial disclosure narrative onto the public.
Related Lower Level SSP Group Broke Away from SSP Alliance Council, Intends on Pushing Partial Disclosure and Inner-Earth Anshar to Begin Contact with Surface
According to Goode and other insiders, the criminal syndicates who have managed our planet from behind closed doors, also known as the Cabal or Illuminati, always knew that keeping the ET issue secret forever was not possible. As a result, they have devised a limited or partial disclosure plan which is currently being rolled out. This could be why a paradigm shift within scientific circles is taking place and the recent change in the Drake Equation is one point of evidence for this. A slow and controlled soft disclosure has been happening for years and appears to be ramping up for a major event in the future.
Related 3 Soft ET Disclosure Articles | Roswell UFO Alien Photos, DNA Building Blocks Created By Exploding Stars & Saturn's Moon Enceladus Has Lakes
Part of the limited disclosure narrative is the idea that extraterrestrial civilizations exist, but that they are all extinct. Apparently there are countless ancient ET sites throughout the solar system and on Earth. The SSP refer to this extinct group as the Ancient Builder race, due to the vast number of artifacts left behind.
Related Cosmic Disclosure Season 2 - Episode 7: Remnants of Ancient Mars - Summary and Analysis | Corey Goode and David Wilcock
While Goode provides no hard evidence to support his claims, there is an inordinate amount of indirect correlation for his narrative. The pictured painted by the revised Drake Equation almost perfectly matches the partial disclosure narrative spoken of by Goode in his testimony. In a court of law, this point alone could easily be presented as positive evidence to support his claims.
And the full truth is far more exciting and rewarding for humanity than this limited disclosure narrative currently being promulgated by certain groups.
Goode and many other insiders, whistleblowers and contactee's claim that there are a great many non-terrestrial civilizations in the cosmos, most of which have existed for billions of years. Instead of civilizations going extinct due to a lack environmental sustainability, many races can and do find balance, at which point they become what Michio Kaku loosely refers to as a type 1 civilization. Their society becomes immortal for all intents and purposes. Given this point of view, the notion of all ET races eventually go extinct seems a bit short sighted.
In the final analysis, the light of truth seems to be shining a little brighter, but it is still only a glimmer. The revised Drake Equation does concede that non-terrestrial civilizations have existed, but humanity is no closer to making contact with them because they are allegedly all extinct.
But this data can still be used to help crack open the minds of our fellows. The whole truth about ETs is far more in depth and intimately connected to our own evolving civilization in the stars.
Related David Wilcock and Corey Goode: History of the Solar System and Secret Space Program - Notes from Consciousness Life Expo 2016
An advanced alien civilization DID exist before us: Scientists update prediction of alien life using latest Kepler exoplanet data
- Equation estimates number of intelligent civilizations in the universe
- But it's 55 years old, and doesn't include new information from probes
- Study added data from Nasa's Kepler satellite on habitable exoplanets
- Found odds of advanced civilization developing need to be less than one in 10 billion trillion for humans to be the only intelligent life in the universe
Published: 14:36 EST, 28 April 2016 | Updated: 15:11 EST, 28 April 2016
We may not be not the universe's first advanced civilization.
That's the conclusion of a recent revision of the famous 1961 Drake Equation, which estimates the number of intelligent civilizations in the universe.
Their new equation includes recent data from Nasa's Kepler satellite on the number of exoplanets that could harbour life.
Researchers also adapted the equation from being about the number of civilizations that exist now, to being about the probability of civilization being the only one that has ever existed.
The Drake equation (top row) has proven to be a durable framework for research. But it is impossible to do anything more than guess at variables such as L, the probably longevity of other advanced civilizations. In new research, Adam Frank and Woodruff Sullivan offer a new equation (bottom row)
THE REVISED DRAKE EQUATION
The Drake Equation is a seven-variable way of finding the chance of active civilisations existing beyond Earth.
It takes into account factors like the rate of star formation, the amount of stars that could form planetary systems, the number potentially habitable planets in those systems.
But it's now 55 years old, and doesn't include new information from astronomers on the likelihood of life existing on newly-discovered planets.
Their new equation includes recent data from Nasa's Kepler satellite on the number of exoplanets that could harbour life.
Researchers also adapted the equation from being about the number of civilisations that exist now, to being about the probability of civilisation being the only one that has ever existed.
The study shows the odds of an advanced civilisation developing need to be less than one in 10 billion trillion for humans to be the only intelligent life in the universe.
The study shows that unless the odds of advanced life evolving on a habitable planet are astonishingly low, then humankind is not the only advanced civilization to have lived.
In fact, the odds of an advanced civilization developing need to be less than one in 10 billion trillion for humans to be the only intelligent life in the universe.
But Kepler data places those odds much higher, which means technologically advanced aliens are likely to have existed at some point.
'The question of whether advanced civilizations exist elsewhere in the universe has always been vexed with three large uncertainties in the Drake equation,' said Adam Frank, professor of physics and astronomy at the University of Rochester and co-author of the paper.
'We've known for a long time approximately how many stars exist.
'We didn't know how many of those stars had planets that could potentially harbor life, how often life might evolve and lead to intelligent beings, and how long any civilizations might last before becoming extinct.'
'Thanks to Nasa's Kepler satellite and other searches, we now know that roughly one-fifth of stars have planets in 'habitable zones,' where temperatures could support life as we know it.
'So one of the three big uncertainties has now been constrained.'
Frank said that the third big question - how long civilizations might survive - is still completely unknown.
'The fact that humans have had rudimentary technology for roughly ten thousand years doesn't really tell us if other societies would last that long or perhaps much longer,' he explained.
But Frank and his co-author, Woodruff Sullivan of the astronomy department at the University of Washington, found they could eliminate that term altogether by simply expanding the question.
'Rather than asking how many civilizations may exist now, we ask 'are we the only technological species that has ever arisen?' said Sullivan.
Pictured is a plot of human population, total energy consumption and atmospheric CO2 concentration from 10,000 BCE to today. Scientists used data such as this to estimate how quickly a civilization might die out
'This shifted focus eliminates the uncertainty of the civilization lifetime question and allows us to address what we call the 'cosmic archaeological question' - how often in the history of the universe has life evolved to an advanced state?'
COULD 50 GALAXIES BE HIDING ADANCED ALIEN LIFE?
Last year, scientists said they had found 50 galaxies that may contain intelligent alien races.
These galaxies were found to be emitting 'unusually high' levels of radiation - possibly indicating 'the presence of a highly advanced civilisation.'
Within these galaxies, the researchers said it was possible that an alien race could be harnessing the power of the stars - emitting huge amounts of noticeable heat in the process.
The study was led by Dr Jason Wright from the Center for Exoplanets and Habitable Worlds at Penn State University in Pennsylvania.
The Glimpsing Heat from Alien Technologies Survey (G-Hat), published in the Astrophysical Journal, details how the team thought they might see the infrared signature of a race far more advanced than ours.
'The idea behind our research is that, if an entire galaxy had been colonised by an advanced spacefaring civilisation, the energy produced by that civilisation's technologies would be detectable in mid-infrared wavelengths,' said Dr Wright.
Rather than guessing at the odds of advanced life developing, they calculate the odds against it occurring in order for humanity to be the only advanced civilization.
With that, Frank and Sullivan then calculated the line between a universe where humanity has been the sole experiment in civilization and one where others have come before us.
'Of course, we have no idea how likely it is that an intelligent technological species will evolve on a given habitable planet,' says Frank.
'But using our method we can tell exactly how low that probability would have to be for us to be the only civilization the universe has produced.
'We call that the pessimism line. If the actual probability is greater than the pessimism line, then a technological species and civilization has likely happened before.'
Using this approach, Frank and Sullivan calculate how unlikely advanced life must be if there has never been another example among the universe's ten billion trillion stars, or even among our own Milky Way galaxy's hundred billion.
'One in 10 billion trillion is incredibly small,' says Frank. 'To me, this implies that other intelligent, technology producing species very likely have evolved before us.
'Think of it this way. Before our result you'd be considered a pessimist if you imagined the probability of evolving a civilization on a habitable planet were, say, one in a trillion.
'But even that guess, one chance in a trillion, implies that what has happened here on Earth with humanity has in fact happened about a 10 billion other times over cosmic history.'
The study shows the odds of an a civilisation developing need to be less than one in 10 billion trillion for humans to be the only intelligent life in the universe. Pictured is an artist's impression of an Earth-like planet
For smaller volumes the numbers are less extreme.
For example, another technological species likely has evolved on a habitable planet in our own Milky Way galaxy if the odds against it are better than one chance in 60 billion.
But if those numbers seem to give ammunition to the 'optimists' about the existence of alien civilizations,
Sullivan points out that the full Drake equation - which calculates the odds that other civilizations are around today - may give solace to the pessimists.
'The universe is more than 13 billion years old,' said Sullivan.
'That means that even if there have been a thousand civilizations in our own galaxy, if they live only as long as we have been around - roughly ten thousand years - then all of them are likely already extinct.
Their new equation includes recent data from Nasa's Kepler satellite on the number of exoplanets that could harbour life. Pictured is an artist's impression of the probe
'And others won't evolve until we are long gone. For us to have much chance of success in finding another 'contemporary' active technological civilization, on average they must last much longer than our present lifetime.'
'Given the vast distances between stars and the fixed speed of light we might never really be able to have a conversation with another civilization anyway,' said Frank.
'If they were 20,000 light years away then every exchange would take 40,000 years to go back and forth.'
But, as Frank and Sullivan point out, even if there aren't other civilizations in our galaxy to communicate with now, the new result still has a profound scientific and philosophical importance.
'From a fundamental perspective the question is 'has it ever happened anywhere before?'' said Frank.
Our result is the first time anyone has been able to set any empirical answer for that question and it is astonishingly likely that we are not the only time and place that an advance civilization has evolved.'
The Earth, seen from the unmanned Apollo 4 at an altitude of about 9,544 nautical miles miles. U. of Washington astronomer Woody Sullivan and co-author ask, have there been other species with energy-intensive technology? And if so, how long did they last?
Image Source - http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/5710e9108d3eae82620c8ebb/this-enormous-crater-could-be-the-birthplace-of-alien-life-on-mars.jpg
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