Sunday, January 12, 2014

Solar Update: ...... Something stinks.

Source - Removing the Shackles 

Well after the events of past 4 days it is, in my opinion, absolutely conclusive that NASA, NOAA and there sister agencies are lying through their teeth, or completely incompetent.

On Wed I published a Solar Update HERE, mostly focused on the X class flare from spot 1944 and the predicted upcoming geomagnetic storm caused by the CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) generated by the X Flare.

"NOAA is giving a risk 80% of M Class and 50% of X Class flares for today.... I'm going to go out on a limb and say that I give it 100% chance of an MClass flare today from 1944/6, and I expect we'll see 1946 evolve into Beta Gamma Delta in the next 24-48 hours as well.  We also have a good size Coronal Hole currently rotating into direct Earth View- the Solar Wind stream from that should reach earth Jan 12/13th."

On January 8th NOAA put out the following warnings: 

NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:

January 9th
50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk
January 10th
50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
January 11th
1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.HSIEp9Zl.dpuf
 NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).

The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:

    January 9th- 50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk

    January 10th- 50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.

    January 11th- 1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.


I will put the NOAA warnings in reverse order so that they are easier to see the changes: 

NOAA is predicting a geomagnetic storm later today as the CME from the X1 flare hits the Earths magnetosphere. The speed of the solar wind will spike at around 1.6 million miles per hour (700km/s).
The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) has the following information for the 9th, 10th and 11th January:

January 9th
50-90% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk
January 10th
50-85% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
January 11th
1-50% chance of major-severe geomagnetic storm depending on where you live. The further north you are the higher the percentage of risk.
- See more at: http://www.thedailysheeple.com/nasa-announce-incoming-cme-will-cause-a-geomagnetic-storm_012014#sthash.HSIEp9Zl.dpuf

2014-01-08 12:30   G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Expected
SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9 and 10.  The source of this disturbance is a fairly fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7.  Full evaluation and modeling of this event has refined the forecast and indicates a fairly direct interaction with Earth, with the WSA-Enlil model putting arrival mid-morning UTC on January 9 (very early morning EST).  In addition, the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event is currently near, but below, the S3 (Strong) threshold, with values leveling off at this time.  At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic.  Updates here as this event progresses.
2014-01-09 00:03   S3 (Strong) Solar Radiation Storm In Progress
The ongoing S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm has intensified to an S3 (Strong) event as of 2320 UTC (6:20 p.m. EST) today, January 8. Protons should stay at this same approximate level for the next few hours, then likely take another jump with the passage of the shock ahead of the CME, expected to occur around 0900 UTC (4:00 a.m. EST) tomorrow, January 9. However, this increase is not expected to exceed the S3 level. The CME is forecast to set off G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity through January 9 and 10. Aurora watchers should be ready; updates here as things unfold.

2014-01-09 20:02   CME Has Arrived
The coronal mass ejection (CME), originally expected to arrive around 0800 UTC (3:00 a.m. EST) today, January 9, was observed at the ACE spacecraft just upstream of Earth at 1932 UTC (2:32 p.m. EST).  It’s too early to see much with respect to the magnetic structure of this CME, but short-term, high-confidence warnings will be issued as this event plays out.  The original forecast continues to be for G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm activity on January 9 and 10.  Aurora watchers may be in luck for tonight.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, currently at S2 (Moderate) levels, is seeing a modest enhancement with this shock passage but remains below S3 (Strong) threshold at this time.  Updates here as this event unfolds.

2014-01-10 01:15   Modest Start to Geomagnetic Storm
The coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the R3 (Strong) Solar Flare Radio Blackout event from January 7th is now affecting Earth but the resulting geomagnetic storm is off to a modest start, with no substantial storming occurring thus far.  The initial structure of this CME has been relatively weak in strength, but that said, it generally takes on the order of 24 hours or more for the full event to transpire and stronger storming is certainly still possible.  The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm, still just above the S2 (Moderate) threshold, continues it slow decay toward background levels.  Additionally, Region 1944 is showing some signs of decay and no significant flaring has been observed in the last 48 hours.  Stay tuned for updates.

2014-01-11 00:48   Solar Radiation Storm Winding Down
The ongoing Solar Radiation Storm continues its decay and is nearing the S1 (Minor) event threshold.  This event will continue its slow return background levels over the next 24 hours, barring further activity.  Meanwhile, Region 1944 has gone quiet, with no significant flaring observed since January 7th.  This region continues to exhibit signs of weakening, but some threat of significant activity still remains.  Updates here as conditions warrant.

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/WhatsNew.html

Wellllll..... hmmmmmmmmm.  See here's the thing.  "They" say that the geomagnetic storm was insignificant.... and yet in the middle of the afternoon of the 9th, Malta experienced a power black out....

.... of the entire COUNTRY!

"One of the Delimara power station's switchboard tripped during maintenance causing a widespread power cut across the Maltese Islands, MaltaToday has learnt.
The maintenance works were being carried out by Enemalta."
http://www.maltatoday.com.mt/en/newsdetails/news/national/Widespread-power-cuts-reported-across-the-Maltese-Islands-20140109

yea..... the electricity company just happened to trip a "fuse" (yes, that is the word that was used on the evening news!) .... and blacked out the entire country!!

In Morocco, the gang over there have had almost no internet since the 9th and I've had reports from many people in the US and Europe saying that their internet suddenly sucks too.

Solar storm strikes Earth following monster flare (VIDEO)

Published time: January 10, 2014 18:14
Edited time: January 11, 2014 09:36

A large coronal mass ejection has reached Earth – days after the Sun sent a massive burst of solar wind and electromagnetic radiation towards our planet. While causing no major geomagnetic storm, it has produced spectacular auroras in northern Europe.
The coronal mass ejection (CME) arrived near Earth at 2:32pm EST (7:32pm GMT) on Thursday, with its effects expected to continue throughout Friday, according to US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has issued a warning of a geomagnetic storm with “minor disruptions to communications and GPS.”

While the world’s economies braced for possible blackouts in high-frequency airline and military communications, disruptions to GPS signals and power grids, enthusiasts in the northern hemisphere rushed outdoors in the hope of viewing the stunning aurora borealis as far south as Colorado.

However, American aurora spotters have been disappointed, as, according to spaceweather.com, the CME’s impact was “weaker than expected” and failed to produce widespread storms. Some frustrated Twitter users also blamed cloudy skies for not being able to see the northern lights. ....

http://rt.com/news/solar-storm-flare-earth-420/ 

So there was glorious Auroras seen in northern Europe.... but the "clouds" blocked it all out in North America......  Really?

Here is a conversation in skype that I just had with AK:


[6:57:00 PM] AK:: Internet sure sucks in Cabo a contact at ATT in ATL says there networks in the USA are all screwy because of the X Flare
[6:33:34 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: really eh?
[6:33:44 PM] AK: Seems to affecting DSL links hard as they are largely unshielded from EMF
[6:34:30 PM] AK: Just normal copper telephone wires and not even twisted pair copper
[6:38:33 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: and yet according to NASA there is no geomagnetic storms, and the radiation storm is very "minor"..... and 1944 went suddenly dead quiet after the x class flare when it SHOULD of been blowing off.... 1943 is also quiet.  3 days of silence.  On january 8th NASA released a serious warning of severe geomagnetic storm on 9/10..... then all reports were... meh, nothing really happening.... we have a black out of all malta on the 9th, and you guys haven't had any internet since the 9th........
[6:38:58 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: we also have a major coronal hole directly earth facing..... yet.... no mention of coronal winds

[6:52:03 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: just did a bit more research.l  they called for severe/serious geomagnetic storms starting at 800 UTC on the 9th and to continue till 10th. the CME didn't hit until after 1900 utc and NOTHING- it was barely a minor storm.
[6:57:45 PM] D.Breakingthesilence: this stinks darlins!!!  it seriously stinks!!!


As I said in an earlier post a little while back about solar activity- for two years I have watched the same thing happen over and over again:  a major sun spot, throwing off huge flares, rotates into geoeffective Earth view and suddenly.... it just fizzles out.  Goes silent.  Then as it rotates around the western limb, then POW  it flares up again.   

Same thing again this week.  Spot 1944 should of continued with strong M and even X Class flares.  It was so close to 1943 that they were almost touching.....  The fact that NOAA gave a risk of  90% for M Class and 50% for X Class flares, shows that that IS what should of happened.  And it didn't.  Instead, everything just went silent.  Not even a mention of the massive Coronal Hole stream that was directly facing earth since Wednesday either. Below is a picture of the Coronal Hole on Tuesday. 

So.... I'm at a loss here.  Either NASA/NOAA etc are all lying, or something completely unheard of (or at least, completely unexplained) is happening between Earth and the Sun.


 
The Sun Today:



AIA 171
AIA 304
AIA 193
AIA 335
AIA 211
Composite
Intensity
Magnetogram
Latest CME Model (Goddard)
Intensity Colored (Open Map)
AIA 094 (Magnetic Class)
Intensity Enhanced (2.5mb)
Daily Coronal Hole Map
Daily Farside Map




Source:

http://removingtheshackles.blogspot.com/2014/01/solar-update-something-stinks.html

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